基于分子动力学的车流运行动态特性及其模型

车辆跟驰行为受前导车和道路环境等的影响,将车辆抽象成相互作用的分子,基于分子动力学构建相互作用势函数,建立基于相互作用势函数的分子跟驰模型.采集试验路段不同点位的交通流样本,从视频中获得所需数据,并对加速度波动特性进行分析.将车辆运行状态分为常态行驶,起动加速和减速停车3种,根据实测交通数据对3种车辆运行状态进行模型参数标定,同时对分子跟驰模型进行稳定性分析验证,结果表明,相对于经典GM模型,分子跟驰模型稳定性更好,对实际交通状态拟合程度更高.     

大连新建地铁对公交出行选择的影响

为了分析城市新建地铁项目对居民公共交通出行的影响，改善公交服务水平，提高公共交 通的分担率，针对大连市新建地铁线路展开研究。以大连市地铁1 号线沿线站点作为研究区域， 采用SP （Stated Preference） 调查方法，收集了300 名地铁沿线居民对常规公交以及新建地铁两种 出行方式的选择数据。通过建立二项Logit 模型，分析出行成本、换乘时间等选择方案特性变 量，出行特性变量以及出行者特性变量对于居民出行方式选择行为的影响，并计算弹性值及模型 精度。结果表明，通过调整出行成本及换乘时间可有效提高地铁分担率。由此提出相关政策建 议：对于出行成本，可从出行者年龄及出行次数两方面制定不同的优惠政策；对于换乘时间，可 从提高可达性、完善购票系统以及调整发班频率三方面进行改善。     

基于朴素贝叶斯算法的船舶异常行为监测

随着海事事故与海上违法行为的不断增多,智能的监控方法成为降低海事事故,打击海上违法行为的有效手段.同时,船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)的普及及船舶交通管理系统(Vessel Traffic Service,VTS)的扩建,又为智能监控提供了数据支持.鉴于此,利用船舶自动识别系统提供的数据,分析通航水域船舶信息的分布情况,根据其概率分布采用朴素贝叶斯算法,从船舶航速、航向及距航道边界距离3个方面,构建船舶异常行为检测模型.最后,以成山角通航水域为例,检验模型的有效性.实验结果表明,构建的模型能够有效地完成异常行为监测,减少海事监管人员的工作强度,同时根据实验结果分析了成山角水域船舶航行的特点,并对成山角定线制提出合理化建议.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

The built environment and travel behavior in urban China: A literature review

Interests in studying of the built environment impacts on travel behavior have proliferated from North America to other parts of the world including China. Until very recently, there has been very little research into travel behavior in China. However, during the last decade, there has been a fast growing interest in studying the built environment and travel behavior in Chinese cities, perhaps motivated by China’s unprecedented urbanization and rapid urban transport development. Case studies from China provide new insights into the impacts of built environment on travel behavior that can help to enrich existing scholarship. However, currently there is a generally poor understanding of the role played by Chinese research and how it has enriched the international literature. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing studies in and outside China by both Chinese and non-Chinese scholars. The focus is on the contribution of these studies to the international literature. We identify four areas of contribution: how the built environment has been developed and its implications for travel behavior; the importance of housing sources in defining residential built environment and explaining travel behavior; the unique Danwei (or work unit) perspective on jobs-housing relationships and commuting behavior; and the importance of neighborhood types in explaining travel behavior in Chinese cities. The findings from this review should be relevant for researchers interested in developing future studies that will further advance geographic knowledge of the built environment and travel behavior, specifically in China and with broader global contexts.     

多车道高速公路出口开口段安全特性分析

为研究不同断面形式下的多车道高速公路出口影响区开口长度及流量与交通安全的关系，针对2种断面形式的高速公路出口，分别设计了3种不同的开口长度，结合3种不同流量条件设计了18个不同的驾驶模拟场景。实验招募30名被试者开展模拟驾驶实验，提取不同开口长度及流量条件下各断面形式高速公路出口的车辆行驶轨迹、换道间隙的选择、减速度、最小 TTC (Time to Collision)等驾驶行为特性参数，综合分析基于驾驶行为数据对不同开口长度的行车风险。结果表明：两种断面形式下，开口长度对于车辆在开口段上的换道点选择存在显著影响；两种断面形式下，1500 m的开口长度能够满足绝大多数驾驶人的换道需求；在换道间隙选择中，大都集中在5~6 s，分离式断面下的开口长度对于低于临界间隙的换道间隙出现的频次具有显著影响；流量及开口长度对于最大减速度及TTC最小值和分布位置均不存在显著性影响，但分离式断面下的最大减速度和最小TTC相较于整体式断面更小；此外，整体式断面中内侧3车道的行车风险低于分离式断面，分离式断面中外侧车道的行车风险低于整体式断面。     

基于家庭属性差异的大学生出行方式选择行为研究

为剖析家庭属性差异对大学生出行方式选择行为的影响，基于非集计理论，构建家庭属性差异的大学生出行选择多元Logit 模型. 根据四川省2 571 份大学生出行行为调查问卷，运用SPSS 软件标定模型参数，获取影响大学生出行选择的主要家庭属性因素，并进行敏感性分析. 结果表明：家庭平均年收入、经济净流对大学生出行方式选择有显著的影响；以航空运输为参考，家庭平均年收入、经济净流对公路运输方式选择的影响大于铁路运输；“祖辈替孙辈购买机票”的折扣票务形式可提高大学生选择航空出行的概率.     

Strava Metro data for bicycle monitoring: a literature review

ABSTRACT

Monitoring bicycle trips is no longer limited to traditional sources, such as travel surveys and counts. Strava, a popular fitness tracker, continuously collects human movement trajectories, and its commercial data service, Strava Metro, has enriched bicycle research opportunities over the last five years. Accrued knowledge from colleagues who have already utilised Strava Metro data can be valuable for those seeking expanded monitoring options. To convey such knowledge, this paper synthesises a data overview, extensive literature review on how the data have been applied to deal with drivers’ bicycle-related issues, and implications for future work. The review results indicate that Strava Metro data have the potential—although finite—to be used to identify various travel patterns, estimate travel demand, analyse route choice, control for exposure in crash models, and assess air pollution exposure. However, several challenges, such as the under-representativeness of the general population, bias towards and away from certain groups, and lack of demographic and trip details at the individual level, prevent researchers from depending entirely on the new data source. Cross-use with other sources and validation of reliability with official data could enhance the potentiality.     

Spatiotemporal influence of land use and household properties on automobile travel demand

Understanding the patterns of automobile travel demand can help formulate policies to alleviate congestion and pollution. This study focuses on the influence of land use and household properties on automobile travel demand. Car license plate recognition (CLPR) data, point-of-interest (POI) data, and housing information data were utilized to obtain automobile travel demand along with the land use and household properties. A geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was adopted to deal with both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of travel demand. The spatial-temporal patterns of GTWR coefficients were analyzed. Also, comparative analyses were carried out between automobile and total person travel demand, and among travel demand of taxis, heavily-used private cars, and total automobiles. The results show that: (I) The GTWR model has significantly higher accuracy compared with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, which means the GTWR model can measure both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity with high precision; (II) The influence of built environment and household properties on automobile travel demand varies with space and time. In particular, the temporal distribution of regression coefficients shows significant peak phenomenon; and (III) Comparative analyses indicate that residents’ preference for automobiles over other travel modes varies with their travel purpose and destination. The above findings indicate that the proposed method can not only model spatial-temporal heterogeneous travel demand, but also provide a way to analyze the patterns of automobile travel demand.     

Flying with climate liability? Economic valuation of voluntary carbon offsets using forced choices

This study aims to examine how key aspects of voluntary climate action influence economic values of aviation carbon offsets using an Australian case study, where voluntary carbon offset programs for the aviation sector were active under a carbon tax between July 01, 2012 and July 17, 2014. An online survey was administered during the period using choice experiments. This rare and short-lived Australian experience is useful to gain insights into how individuals respond to the new public policy in terms of the perceived economic value of voluntary offsets for air travel. According to the estimation results, supporters of the mandatory tax policy held a welfare value of voluntary carbon offsets for their domestic flights that is three times larger than non-supporters (i.e., $AU27.83 vs. $AU9.40). It is $AU12.27 on average per ton of carbon offsets per person for domestic flights and $AU0.92 for international long-haul flights. The findings endorse that individuals seem to attach personal responsibility for carbon emissions (i.e. climate liability or carbon conscience) to frequent domestic flights, but not so much to intercontinental flights. Furthermore, reported flight frequencies by respondents did not place any significant impact on economic values of voluntary carbon offsets in both domestic and international frameworks. A coupled approach between forced choices and certainty responses was adapted, where no-choice options were retrieved, potentially improving choice experiments. Results suggest that airlines should consider simplifying their carbon offset programs to fixed levels (e.g. £3, £10, and £20 as in the case of British Airways), regardless of geographical boundaries, while governments should promote both mandatory and voluntary climate measures in tandem.